1.1
What is Econometrics?
The term econometrics is derived from two words of Greek origin, oikovouia (economy) and ueipov (measure). In Literal words, it simply refers to as measurement of economy or economic relationships. It may be defined as the integration of economic theory, mathematics and statistics for the purpose of providing numerical values for the parameters of economic relationship and verifying economic theories. More importantly, econometrics is different from other branches of economics and related sciences for is concerned with stochastic, implying non-exact economic relationships measurement.
To
this end, econometrics is a development of statistics and mathematical
economics not only to measure but make an inference to real world problems. For
instance, you are consulted by the Lagos State government to evaluate the
effectiveness of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on traffic congestion in Lagos state.
To what extent does the knowledge of econometrics will help you in the
evaluation task because already the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority
(LAMATA) has the statistics or records of BRT and even traffic congestion's since inception in March 2008? Truly, they have the statistics or data but
statistics only cannot measure the term effectiveness? Therefore, the knowledge
of econometrics will help you to measure the relationship between BRT and
traffic congestion's and if possible the effects of BRT on traffic congestion's?
And even consider the measure of other possible factors not included in this
evaluation that can also affects traffic congestion in Lagos State and thus,
make a better decision about traffic congestion's by the Lagos government at
present and in the future, all through the knowledge of econometrics.
1.2
Process of Testing a Theory
Foremost,
a theory is a Model. It is an abstraction from the world. Hence, econometrics
presupposes the existence of a body of economic theory. Economic theory should
come first, because it sets the hypotheses about economic behavior which should
be tested with the application of econometric techniques.
In
testing a theory, we should consider the following steps;
STEP 1: Define the problems and state
the assumptions and hypothesis about the economic behaviour as theory.
STEP 2: Express the theory in its
mathematical form which constitutes the model. This is done by expressing the
equation in two components of systematic and random components.
STEP 3: Confrontation of model with
data. That is, process of gathering the data to investigate the economic
relationship.
__ Example of a data showing an economic relationship__
STEP 4: Empirical investigation or
evaluate with data through the aids of
economic criteria or statistical criteria or econometric criteria.
STEP 5: Conclusion on whether the
theory agrees with the data or disagree with the data. Accept the theory if it
agrees with the data from the economic criteria or statistical criteria or
econometric criteria and reject the theory if it disagrees with data from each
criteria. Then, revise or amend theory in line with our new empirical
observations.
Thus, the procedure to be followed when testing a theory may be schematically, a summary of methodology of econometric research.
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